Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ข
ESTC IV: 61.1% โ LOW
(-18.6% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $50 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.27 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.62 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $50 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-289 (-29.2%) on $989 risked, vs +$670 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $50. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $50 by Jun 19
$-289
-29.2% on $989 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$989
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$52.89
+22.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.63 / -7.27 / 14.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | +$117 | +$9 | -$101 | -$153 |
| $37 (-15%) | +$39 | -$94 | -$247 | -$369 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$6 | -$160 | -$351 | -$586 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$18 | -$187 | -$405 | -$802 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$11 | -$185 | -$412 | -$932 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$176 | -$406 | -$959 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$16 | -$161 | -$392 | -$872 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$48 | -$129 | -$358 | -$743 |
| $48 (+10%) | +$123 | -$50 | -$264 | -$526 |
| $50 (+15%) โ target | +$232 | +$68 | -$122 | -$289 |
| $52 (+20%) | +$340 | +$188 | +$22 | -$93 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.