Target Price Playground
FICO
$922.37
๐ข
FICO IV: 56.1% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 69.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1000 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $922.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1000 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $95.0 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FICO hits $1000 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$17,263 (20.9%) on $82,737 risked, vs +$7,763 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $92,237. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FICO is at $1000. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FICO hits $1000 by Jun 19
+$17,263
+20.9% on $82,737 risked
Max Profit
+$17,263
If the stock โฅ $1000 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$82,737
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$827.37
-10.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.83 / 77.21 / -163.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FICO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $738 (-20%) | -$10,289 | -$9,574 | -$9,054 | -$8,947 |
| $784 (-15%) | -$6,521 | -$5,524 | -$4,642 | -$4,336 |
| $830 (-10%) | -$3,060 | -$1,776 | -$455 | +$276 |
| $876 (-5%) | +$62 | +$1,607 | +$3,379 | +$4,888 |
| $904 (-2%) | +$1,765 | +$3,444 | +$5,460 | +$7,655 |
| $922 (0%) โ spot | +$2,830 | +$4,585 | +$6,743 | +$9,500 |
| $941 (+2%) | +$3,838 | +$5,658 | +$7,937 | +$11,345 |
| $968 (+5%) | +$5,244 | +$7,141 | +$9,556 | +$14,112 |
| $1000 (+8%) โ target | +$6,697 | +$8,647 | +$11,147 | +$17,263 |
| $1015 (+10%) | +$7,318 | +$9,281 | +$11,795 | +$17,263 |
| $1061 (+15%) | +$9,073 | +$11,032 | +$13,489 | +$17,263 |
| $1107 (+20%) | +$10,539 | +$12,432 | +$14,712 | +$17,263 |
Uses FICO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.