Target Price Playground
FICO
$922.37
๐ข
FICO IV: 56.1% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 69.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $810 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $920 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FICO hits $810 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$6,980 (173.6%) on $4,020 risked, vs $-11,237 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $92,237. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FICO is at $810. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FICO hits $810 by Jun 19
+$6,980
+173.6% on $4,020 risked
Max Profit
+$87,980
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,020
Premium paid
Break-even
$879.80
-4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.11 / -71.12 / 155.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FICO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $738 (-20%) | +$15,822 | +$15,048 | +$14,333 | +$14,190 |
| $784 (-15%) | +$12,507 | +$11,454 | +$10,286 | +$9,579 |
| $810 (-12%) โ target | +$10,804 | +$9,610 | +$8,193 | +$6,980 |
| $830 (-10%) | +$9,569 | +$8,278 | +$6,685 | +$4,967 |
| $876 (-5%) | +$7,017 | +$5,557 | +$3,650 | +$355 |
| $904 (-2%) | +$5,668 | +$4,145 | +$2,128 | -$2,412 |
| $922 (0%) โ spot | +$4,841 | +$3,292 | +$1,238 | -$4,020 |
| $941 (+2%) | +$4,072 | +$2,510 | +$445 | -$4,020 |
| $968 (+5%) | +$3,019 | +$1,460 | -$571 | -$4,020 |
| $1015 (+10%) | +$1,517 | +$15 | -$1,851 | -$4,020 |
| $1061 (+15%) | +$296 | -$1,096 | -$2,710 | -$4,020 |
| $1107 (+20%) | -$683 | -$1,933 | -$3,258 | -$4,020 |
Uses FICO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.