Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FIVN hits $15 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$23 (1.9%) on $-23 credit (max loss $1,227), vs +$89 (6.5%) for 100 shares on $1,361. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FIVN is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FIVN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11 (-20%) | -$140 | -$137 | -$136 | -$138 |
| $12 (-15%) | -$88 | -$82 | -$74 | -$70 |
| $12 (-10%) | -$48 | -$38 | -$26 | -$2 |
| $13 (-5%) | -$19 | -$9 | +$4 | +$23 |
| $13 (-2%) | -$6 | +$3 | +$13 | +$23 |
| $14 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$8 | +$17 | +$23 |
| $14 (+2%) | +$5 | +$12 | +$20 | +$23 |
| $14 (+5%) | +$11 | +$17 | +$22 | +$23 |
| $15 (+7%) โ target | +$14 | +$18 | +$22 | +$23 |
| $15 (+10%) | +$17 | +$21 | +$23 | +$23 |
| $16 (+15%) | +$21 | +$22 | +$23 | +$23 |
| $16 (+20%) | +$22 | +$23 | +$23 | +$23 |