Target Price Playground
FN
$662.13
๐ข
FN IV: 78.3% โ LOW
(-17.9% vs 30d avg of 95.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $660 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $84.27 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $610 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.1 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FN hits $580 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$2,484 (98.7%) on $2,516 risked, vs $-8,213 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $66,213. Options give 8.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FN is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FN hits $580 by Jun 19
+$2,484
+98.7% on $2,516 risked
Max Profit
+$2,484
If the stock โค $610 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,516
Net debit
Break-even
$634.84
-4.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.85 / -3.65 / 7.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $530 (-20%) | +$1,211 | +$1,360 | +$1,673 | +$2,483 |
| $563 (-15%) | +$913 | +$1,012 | +$1,247 | +$2,483 |
| $580 (-12%) โ target | +$754 | +$821 | +$998 | +$2,483 |
| $596 (-10%) | +$605 | +$642 | +$755 | +$2,483 |
| $629 (-5%) | +$299 | +$267 | +$234 | +$581 |
| $649 (-2%) | +$118 | +$45 | -$77 | -$1,406 |
| $662 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$100 | -$279 | -$2,517 |
| $675 (+2%) | -$117 | -$241 | -$474 | -$2,517 |
| $695 (+5%) | -$286 | -$446 | -$751 | -$2,517 |
| $728 (+10%) | -$553 | -$765 | -$1,164 | -$2,517 |
| $761 (+15%) | -$800 | -$1,051 | -$1,507 | -$2,517 |
| $795 (+20%) | -$1,025 | -$1,303 | -$1,781 | -$2,517 |
Uses FN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.