Target Price Playground
FN
$662.13
๐ข
FN IV: 78.3% โ LOW
(-17.9% vs 30d avg of 95.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $720 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $662.13 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $720 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $68.28 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FN hits $720 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$12,615 (21.2%) on $59,385 risked, vs +$5,787 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $66,213. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FN is at $720. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FN hits $720 by Jun 19
+$12,615
+21.2% on $59,385 risked
Max Profit
+$12,615
If the stock โฅ $720 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$59,385
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$593.85
-10.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.24 / 69.31 / -113.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $530 (-20%) | -$8,525 | -$7,591 | -$6,738 | -$6,415 |
| $563 (-15%) | -$6,092 | -$4,942 | -$3,757 | -$3,104 |
| $596 (-10%) | -$3,859 | -$2,507 | -$982 | +$207 |
| $629 (-5%) | -$1,829 | -$304 | +$1,532 | +$3,517 |
| $649 (-2%) | -$707 | +$905 | +$2,901 | +$5,504 |
| $662 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$1,663 | +$3,750 | +$6,828 |
| $675 (+2%) | +$676 | +$2,382 | +$4,549 | +$8,152 |
| $695 (+5%) | +$1,633 | +$3,393 | +$5,651 | +$10,139 |
| $720 (+9%) โ target | +$2,732 | +$4,537 | +$6,865 | +$12,615 |
| $728 (+10%) | +$3,080 | +$4,895 | +$7,234 | +$12,615 |
| $761 (+15%) | +$4,353 | +$6,184 | +$8,519 | +$12,615 |
| $795 (+20%) | +$5,467 | +$7,279 | +$9,536 | +$12,615 |
Uses FN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.