Target Price Playground
FORM
$123.80
๐ข
FORM IV: 78.1% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 100.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.93 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.82 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FORM hits $110 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$489 (95.8%) on $511 risked, vs $-1,380 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $12,380. Options give 8.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FORM is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FORM hits $110 by Jun 19
+$489
+95.8% on $511 risked
Max Profit
+$489
If the stock โค $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$511
Net debit
Break-even
$119.89
-3.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.89 / -0.62 / 1.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FORM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 (-20%) | +$250 | +$282 | +$348 | +$489 |
| $105 (-15%) | +$189 | +$212 | +$265 | +$489 |
| $110 (-11%) โ target | +$140 | +$155 | +$191 | +$489 |
| $111 (-10%) | +$126 | +$137 | +$167 | +$489 |
| $118 (-5%) | +$62 | +$59 | +$60 | +$228 |
| $121 (-2%) | +$24 | +$13 | -$5 | -$143 |
| $124 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$17 | -$47 | -$391 |
| $126 (+2%) | -$25 | -$47 | -$88 | -$511 |
| $130 (+5%) | -$60 | -$90 | -$146 | -$511 |
| $136 (+10%) | -$116 | -$157 | -$234 | -$511 |
| $142 (+15%) | -$168 | -$217 | -$306 | -$511 |
| $149 (+20%) | -$214 | -$269 | -$364 | -$511 |
Uses FORM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.