Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FORM hits $130 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,082 (10.4%) on $-1,082 credit (max loss $10,418), vs +$620 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $12,380. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FORM is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FORM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 (-20%) | -$1,159 | -$965 | -$732 | -$514 |
| $105 (-15%) | -$805 | -$584 | -$300 | +$105 |
| $111 (-10%) | -$495 | -$256 | +$60 | +$724 |
| $118 (-5%) | -$228 | +$20 | +$348 | +$1,082 |
| $121 (-2%) | -$87 | +$162 | +$489 | +$1,082 |
| $124 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$248 | +$570 | +$1,082 |
| $126 (+2%) | +$81 | +$328 | +$642 | +$1,082 |
| $130 (+5%) โ target | +$193 | +$434 | +$734 | +$1,082 |
| $136 (+10%) | +$354 | +$583 | +$851 | +$1,082 |
| $142 (+15%) | +$489 | +$700 | +$932 | +$1,082 |
| $149 (+20%) | +$600 | +$792 | +$986 | +$1,082 |