Target Price Playground
FORM
$123.80
๐ข
FORM IV: 78.1% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 100.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $123.8 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.91 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FORM hits $135 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,311 (20.7%) on $11,189 risked, vs +$1,120 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $12,380. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FORM is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FORM hits $135 by Jun 19
+$2,311
+20.7% on $11,189 risked
Max Profit
+$2,311
If the stock โฅ $135 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,189
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$111.89
-9.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.28 / 12.39 / -21.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FORM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 (-20%) | -$1,630 | -$1,472 | -$1,332 | -$1,285 |
| $105 (-15%) | -$1,165 | -$966 | -$767 | -$666 |
| $111 (-10%) | -$738 | -$501 | -$238 | -$47 |
| $118 (-5%) | -$349 | -$79 | +$243 | +$572 |
| $121 (-2%) | -$136 | +$152 | +$504 | +$943 |
| $124 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$296 | +$667 | +$1,191 |
| $126 (+2%) | +$129 | +$434 | +$820 | +$1,439 |
| $130 (+5%) | +$311 | +$626 | +$1,030 | +$1,810 |
| $135 (+9%) โ target | +$536 | +$860 | +$1,279 | +$2,311 |
| $142 (+15%) | +$826 | +$1,155 | +$1,574 | +$2,311 |
| $149 (+20%) | +$1,035 | +$1,360 | +$1,765 | +$2,311 |
Uses FORM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.