Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $7 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $8 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.75 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $7 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.51 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $7 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$26 (109.6%) on $24 risked, vs $-105 (-13.9%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 7.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $7. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $7 by Jun 19
+$26
+109.6% on $24 risked
Max Profit
+$26
If the stock โค $7 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$24
Net debit
Break-even
$7.26
-3.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.69 / -0.03 / 0.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | +$15 | +$17 | +$20 | +$26 |
| $6 (-15%) | +$11 | +$13 | +$16 | +$26 |
| $7 (-14%) โ target | +$10 | +$12 | +$14 | +$26 |
| $7 (-10%) | +$7 | +$8 | +$10 | +$26 |
| $7 (-5%) | +$4 | +$4 | +$3 | +$9 |
| $7 (-2%) | +$1 | +$1 | -$0 | -$14 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1 | -$3 | -$24 |
| $8 (+2%) | -$2 | -$3 | -$5 | -$24 |
| $8 (+5%) | -$4 | -$5 | -$9 | -$24 |
| $8 (+10%) | -$7 | -$9 | -$13 | -$24 |
| $9 (+15%) | -$10 | -$12 | -$17 | -$24 |
| $9 (+20%) | -$12 | -$15 | -$20 | -$24 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.