Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $8 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $7 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.51 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $8 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$51 (7.8%) on $-51 credit (max loss $649), vs +$45 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $8. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $8 by Jun 19
+$51
+7.8% on $649 max loss
Max Profit
+$51
If the stock โฅ $7 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$649
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$6.49
-14.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
32.77 / 0.51 / -1.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | -$73 | -$64 | -$53 | -$45 |
| $6 (-15%) | -$50 | -$39 | -$25 | -$7 |
| $7 (-10%) | -$30 | -$18 | -$2 | +$30 |
| $7 (-5%) | -$14 | -$1 | +$15 | +$51 |
| $7 (-2%) | -$5 | +$7 | +$24 | +$51 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$12 | +$28 | +$51 |
| $8 (+2%) | +$5 | +$17 | +$32 | +$51 |
| $8 (+6%) โ target | +$13 | +$25 | +$38 | +$51 |
| $8 (+10%) | +$20 | +$31 | +$43 | +$51 |
| $9 (+15%) | +$27 | +$37 | +$46 | +$51 |
| $9 (+20%) | +$33 | +$41 | +$48 | +$51 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.