Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $8 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $7.55 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $8 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.65 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $8 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$110 (16.0%) on $690 risked, vs +$45 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $8. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $8 by Jun 19
+$110
+16.0% on $690 risked
Max Profit
+$110
If the stock โฅ $8 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$690
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$6.90
-8.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.98 / 0.64 / -1.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | -$101 | -$94 | -$88 | -$86 |
| $6 (-15%) | -$72 | -$62 | -$52 | -$48 |
| $7 (-10%) | -$45 | -$33 | -$20 | -$11 |
| $7 (-5%) | -$21 | -$7 | +$9 | +$27 |
| $7 (-2%) | -$8 | +$7 | +$25 | +$50 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$15 | +$35 | +$65 |
| $8 (+2%) | +$7 | +$23 | +$43 | +$80 |
| $8 (+6%) โ target | +$21 | +$38 | +$59 | +$110 |
| $8 (+10%) | +$34 | +$50 | +$71 | +$110 |
| $9 (+15%) | +$47 | +$63 | +$83 | +$110 |
| $9 (+20%) | +$58 | +$74 | +$92 | +$110 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.