Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $7 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $8 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.89 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $7 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.51 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $7 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$40 (105.7%) on $38 risked, vs $-55 (-7.3%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $7. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $7 by Jun 19
+$40
+105.7% on $38 risked
Max Profit
+$39
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$34
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$7.82
+3.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.62 / 0.06 / 0.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | +$9 | +$12 | +$15 | +$16 |
| $6 (-15%) | +$8 | +$11 | +$15 | +$22 |
| $7 (-10%) | +$6 | +$8 | +$13 | +$32 |
| $7 (-7%) โ target | +$4 | +$7 | +$12 | +$39 |
| $7 (-5%) | +$3 | +$5 | +$10 | +$29 |
| $7 (-2%) | +$1 | +$3 | +$7 | +$17 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$1 | +$5 | +$10 |
| $8 (+2%) | -$2 | -$0 | +$2 | +$4 |
| $8 (+5%) | -$4 | -$3 | -$1 | -$4 |
| $8 (+10%) | -$7 | -$7 | -$7 | -$15 |
| $9 (+15%) | -$11 | -$11 | -$13 | -$23 |
| $9 (+20%) | -$14 | -$15 | -$19 | -$28 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.