Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $7.55 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $7 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.51 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $9 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$44 (5.5%) on $806 risked, vs +$95 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $9 by Jun 19
+$44
+5.5% on $806 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$106
Put floors you at $7
Break-even
$8.06
+6.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.23 / -0.51 / 1.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | -$78 | -$87 | -$98 | -$106 |
| $6 (-15%) | -$63 | -$74 | -$88 | -$106 |
| $7 (-10%) | -$46 | -$58 | -$74 | -$106 |
| $7 (-5%) | -$24 | -$37 | -$53 | -$89 |
| $7 (-2%) | -$10 | -$22 | -$39 | -$66 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$12 | -$28 | -$51 |
| $8 (+2%) | +$10 | -$2 | -$17 | -$36 |
| $8 (+5%) | +$27 | +$15 | +$1 | -$13 |
| $8 (+10%) | +$55 | +$44 | +$32 | +$24 |
| $9 (+13%) โ target | +$71 | +$61 | +$50 | +$44 |
| $9 (+15%) | +$86 | +$76 | +$67 | +$62 |
| $9 (+20%) | +$118 | +$110 | +$103 | +$100 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.