Target Price Playground
FRSH
$7.55
๐ข
FRSH IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-23.1% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $8 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.86 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $8 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.75 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FRSH hits $9 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-61 (-37.8%) on $161 risked, vs +$95 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $755. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FRSH is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FRSH hits $9 by Jun 19
$-61
-37.8% on $161 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$161
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$9.11
+20.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.07 / -1.18 / 2.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FRSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 (-20%) | +$24 | +$8 | -$9 | -$15 |
| $6 (-15%) | +$9 | -$12 | -$36 | -$53 |
| $7 (-10%) | -$0 | -$25 | -$55 | -$90 |
| $7 (-5%) | -$3 | -$30 | -$66 | -$128 |
| $7 (-2%) | -$2 | -$30 | -$67 | -$151 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$29 | -$66 | -$156 |
| $8 (+2%) | +$2 | -$26 | -$64 | -$141 |
| $8 (+5%) | +$8 | -$21 | -$58 | -$118 |
| $8 (+10%) | +$21 | -$7 | -$41 | -$81 |
| $9 (+13%) โ target | +$30 | +$3 | -$29 | -$61 |
| $9 (+15%) | +$39 | +$13 | -$17 | -$43 |
| $9 (+20%) | +$61 | +$37 | +$11 | -$5 |
Uses FRSH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.