Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GE hits $325 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$830 (3.0%) on $-830 credit (max loss $27,670), vs +$1,665 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $30,835. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GE is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247 (-20%) | -$3,202 | -$3,082 | -$2,985 | -$3,002 |
| $262 (-15%) | -$2,085 | -$1,878 | -$1,636 | -$1,460 |
| $278 (-10%) | -$1,180 | -$914 | -$562 | +$82 |
| $293 (-5%) | -$492 | -$212 | +$158 | +$830 |
| $302 (-2%) | -$176 | +$92 | +$429 | +$830 |
| $308 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$252 | +$555 | +$830 |
| $315 (+2%) | +$149 | +$383 | +$646 | +$830 |
| $325 (+5%) โ target | +$351 | +$548 | +$742 | +$830 |
| $339 (+10%) | +$542 | +$686 | +$801 | +$830 |
| $355 (+15%) | +$670 | +$765 | +$823 | +$830 |
| $370 (+20%) | +$744 | +$802 | +$828 | +$830 |