Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GEN hits $19 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$166 (11.2%) on $-166 credit (max loss $1,484), vs +$111 (6.2%) for 100 shares on $1,789. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GEN is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | -$162 | -$131 | -$93 | -$53 |
| $15 (-15%) | -$113 | -$78 | -$33 | +$37 |
| $16 (-10%) | -$70 | -$32 | +$17 | +$126 |
| $17 (-5%) | -$32 | +$6 | +$57 | +$166 |
| $18 (-2%) | -$12 | +$26 | +$76 | +$166 |
| $18 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$39 | +$88 | +$166 |
| $18 (+2%) | +$12 | +$50 | +$98 | +$166 |
| $19 (+5%) | +$28 | +$65 | +$111 | +$166 |
| $19 (+6%) โ target | +$34 | +$71 | +$116 | +$166 |
| $20 (+10%) | +$51 | +$87 | +$129 | +$166 |
| $21 (+15%) | +$71 | +$104 | +$141 | +$166 |
| $21 (+20%) | +$87 | +$118 | +$149 | +$166 |