Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.95 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.05 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $120 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$610 (156.4%) on $390 risked, vs $-1,899 (-13.7%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 11.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $120 by Jun 19
+$610
+156.4% on $390 risked
Max Profit
+$610
If the stock โค $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$390
Net debit
Break-even
$136.10
-2.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.13 / -0.84 / 4.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | +$533 | +$569 | +$600 | +$610 |
| $118 (-15%) | +$449 | +$497 | +$562 | +$610 |
| $120 (-14%) โ target | +$419 | +$468 | +$540 | +$610 |
| $125 (-10%) | +$324 | +$366 | +$441 | +$610 |
| $132 (-5%) | +$172 | +$188 | +$218 | +$406 |
| $136 (-2%) | +$78 | +$74 | +$62 | -$11 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | +$18 | +$1 | -$37 | -$289 |
| $142 (+2%) | -$39 | -$68 | -$125 | -$390 |
| $146 (+5%) | -$117 | -$157 | -$231 | -$390 |
| $153 (+10%) | -$221 | -$267 | -$334 | -$390 |
| $160 (+15%) | -$293 | -$332 | -$375 | -$390 |
| $167 (+20%) | -$338 | -$365 | -$387 | -$390 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.