Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.12 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.26 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $155 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$614 (159.1%) on $386 risked, vs +$1,601 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $155 by Jun 19
+$614
+159.1% on $386 risked
Max Profit
+$614
If the stock โฅ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$386
Net debit
Break-even
$143.86
+3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.63 / -0.65 / 1.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | -$365 | -$379 | -$386 | -$386 |
| $118 (-15%) | -$328 | -$358 | -$382 | -$386 |
| $125 (-10%) | -$258 | -$302 | -$357 | -$386 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$151 | -$195 | -$271 | -$386 |
| $136 (-2%) | -$72 | -$107 | -$174 | -$386 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | -$16 | -$41 | -$92 | -$386 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$42 | +$29 | +$0 | -$209 |
| $146 (+5%) | +$130 | +$136 | +$146 | +$208 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$267 | +$300 | +$364 | +$614 |
| $155 (+12%) โ target | +$304 | +$343 | +$416 | +$614 |
| $160 (+15%) | +$381 | +$428 | +$506 | +$614 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$466 | +$513 | +$575 | +$614 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.