Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $145 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$405 (3.2%) on $-405 credit (max loss $12,595), vs +$601 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | -$1,465 | -$1,448 | -$1,446 | -$1,476 |
| $118 (-15%) | -$909 | -$852 | -$793 | -$781 |
| $125 (-10%) | -$457 | -$366 | -$248 | -$86 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$121 | -$18 | +$120 | +$405 |
| $136 (-2%) | +$27 | +$126 | +$251 | +$405 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | +$106 | +$198 | +$308 | +$405 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$172 | +$254 | +$346 | +$405 |
| $145 (+4%) โ target | +$232 | +$303 | +$374 | +$405 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$327 | +$370 | +$400 | +$405 |
| $160 (+15%) | +$369 | +$392 | +$404 | +$405 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$389 | +$401 | +$405 | +$405 |