Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $138.99 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.26 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $150 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,427 (10.5%) on $13,573 risked, vs +$1,101 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $150 by Jun 19
+$1,427
+10.5% on $13,573 risked
Max Profit
+$1,427
If the stock โฅ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$13,573
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$135.73
-2.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.44 / 4.5 / -22.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | -$2,461 | -$2,455 | -$2,454 | -$2,454 |
| $118 (-15%) | -$1,784 | -$1,766 | -$1,759 | -$1,759 |
| $125 (-10%) | -$1,136 | -$1,093 | -$1,067 | -$1,064 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$542 | -$460 | -$391 | -$369 |
| $136 (-2%) | -$221 | -$114 | -$8 | +$48 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | -$24 | +$98 | +$231 | +$326 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$156 | +$292 | +$450 | +$604 |
| $146 (+5%) | +$397 | +$548 | +$735 | +$1,021 |
| $150 (+8%) โ target | +$597 | +$755 | +$955 | +$1,427 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$718 | +$877 | +$1,076 | +$1,427 |
| $160 (+15%) | +$945 | +$1,093 | +$1,263 | +$1,427 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$1,095 | +$1,220 | +$1,345 | +$1,427 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.