Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.17 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.05 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $130 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$663 (160.9%) on $412 risked, vs $-899 (-6.5%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 24.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $130 by Jun 19
+$663
+160.9% on $412 risked
Max Profit
+$655
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$412
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$140.63
+1.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.21 / 1.69 / 8.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | +$502 | +$526 | +$542 | +$541 |
| $118 (-15%) | +$451 | +$489 | +$535 | +$549 |
| $125 (-10%) | +$363 | +$407 | +$475 | +$589 |
| $130 (-6%) โ target | +$281 | +$318 | +$381 | +$663 |
| $132 (-5%) | +$243 | +$275 | +$329 | +$508 |
| $136 (-2%) | +$162 | +$179 | +$207 | +$230 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | +$107 | +$113 | +$120 | +$77 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$52 | +$48 | +$35 | -$49 |
| $146 (+5%) | -$28 | -$46 | -$83 | -$192 |
| $153 (+10%) | -$144 | -$178 | -$234 | -$328 |
| $160 (+15%) | -$236 | -$274 | -$326 | -$385 |
| $167 (+20%) | -$302 | -$336 | -$374 | -$405 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.