Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.12 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $155 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$788 (110.7%) on $712 risked, vs +$1,601 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 9.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $155 by Jun 19
+$788
+110.7% on $712 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$712
Premium paid
Break-even
$147.12
+5.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.18 / -5.15 / 23.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | -$684 | -$704 | -$712 | -$712 |
| $118 (-15%) | -$629 | -$677 | -$707 | -$712 |
| $125 (-10%) | -$512 | -$599 | -$680 | -$712 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$305 | -$430 | -$575 | -$712 |
| $136 (-2%) | -$130 | -$271 | -$445 | -$712 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | -$138 | -$323 | -$712 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$164 | +$15 | -$171 | -$535 |
| $146 (+5%) | +$428 | +$283 | +$107 | -$118 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$939 | +$813 | +$678 | +$577 |
| $155 (+12%) โ target | +$1,109 | +$991 | +$870 | +$788 |
| $160 (+15%) | +$1,521 | +$1,420 | +$1,328 | +$1,272 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$2,150 | +$2,073 | +$2,010 | +$1,967 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.