Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.95 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $120 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,205 (151.6%) on $795 risked, vs $-1,899 (-13.7%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $120 by Jun 19
+$1,205
+151.6% on $795 risked
Max Profit
+$13,205
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$795
Premium paid
Break-even
$132.05
-4.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.7 / -6.1 / 23.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | +$1,998 | +$2,016 | +$2,047 | +$2,086 |
| $118 (-15%) | +$1,359 | +$1,348 | +$1,356 | +$1,391 |
| $120 (-14%) โ target | +$1,197 | +$1,177 | +$1,174 | +$1,205 |
| $125 (-10%) | +$781 | +$731 | +$689 | +$696 |
| $132 (-5%) | +$293 | +$206 | +$99 | +$1 |
| $136 (-2%) | +$51 | -$52 | -$188 | -$416 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | -$89 | -$198 | -$344 | -$694 |
| $142 (+2%) | -$211 | -$322 | -$471 | -$795 |
| $146 (+5%) | -$364 | -$472 | -$610 | -$795 |
| $153 (+10%) | -$548 | -$637 | -$734 | -$795 |
| $160 (+15%) | -$662 | -$725 | -$779 | -$795 |
| $167 (+20%) | -$727 | -$766 | -$791 | -$795 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.