Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $138.99 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.05 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $155 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,196 (8.4%) on $14,304 risked, vs +$1,601 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $155 by Jun 19
+$1,196
+8.4% on $14,304 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,304
Put floors you at $130
Break-even
$143.04
+2.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
73.43 / -5.26 / 19.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | -$1,315 | -$1,332 | -$1,334 | -$1,304 |
| $118 (-15%) | -$1,176 | -$1,233 | -$1,292 | -$1,304 |
| $125 (-10%) | -$933 | -$1,024 | -$1,142 | -$1,304 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$574 | -$677 | -$815 | -$1,100 |
| $136 (-2%) | -$305 | -$404 | -$529 | -$683 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | -$106 | -$198 | -$308 | -$405 |
| $142 (+2%) | +$106 | +$24 | -$68 | -$127 |
| $146 (+5%) | +$448 | +$380 | +$316 | +$290 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$1,063 | +$1,020 | +$990 | +$985 |
| $155 (+12%) โ target | +$1,258 | +$1,222 | +$1,199 | +$1,196 |
| $160 (+15%) | +$1,716 | +$1,693 | +$1,681 | +$1,680 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$2,391 | +$2,379 | +$2,375 | +$2,375 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.