Target Price Playground
GILD
$138.99
๐ข
GILD IV: 30.1% โ LOW
(-36.9% vs 30d avg of 47.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.12 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.95 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $160 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$493 (32.7%) on $1,507 risked, vs +$2,101 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $13,899. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $160 by Jun 19
+$493
+32.7% on $1,507 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,507
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$124.93
-10.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.48 / -11.25 / 47.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 (-20%) | +$1,314 | +$1,312 | +$1,335 | +$1,374 |
| $118 (-15%) | +$729 | +$671 | +$649 | +$679 |
| $125 (-10%) | +$269 | +$132 | +$9 | -$16 |
| $132 (-5%) | -$11 | -$224 | -$476 | -$711 |
| $136 (-2%) | -$79 | -$323 | -$633 | -$1,128 |
| $139 (0%) โ spot | -$80 | -$336 | -$667 | -$1,406 |
| $142 (+2%) | -$47 | -$307 | -$642 | -$1,330 |
| $146 (+5%) | +$63 | -$189 | -$503 | -$913 |
| $153 (+10%) | +$391 | +$176 | -$56 | -$218 |
| $160 (+15%) โ target | +$871 | +$709 | +$564 | +$493 |
| $167 (+20%) | +$1,424 | +$1,307 | +$1,219 | +$1,172 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.