Target Price Playground
GOOG
$315.72
๐ข
GOOG IV: 7.6% โ LOW
(-84.3% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.85 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.7 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $280 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,585 (173.2%) on $915 risked, vs $-3,572 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $31,572. Options give 15.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $280 by Jun 19
+$1,585
+173.2% on $915 risked
Max Profit
+$1,585
If the stock โค $290 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$915
Net debit
Break-even
$305.85
-3.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.13 / 3.6 / 9.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | +$1,564 | +$1,571 | +$1,578 | +$1,585 |
| $268 (-15%) | +$1,557 | +$1,570 | +$1,578 | +$1,585 |
| $280 (-11%) โ target | +$1,444 | +$1,511 | +$1,565 | +$1,585 |
| $284 (-10%) | +$1,323 | +$1,419 | +$1,517 | +$1,585 |
| $300 (-5%) | +$339 | +$410 | +$497 | +$592 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$329 | -$342 | -$363 | -$356 |
| $316 (0%) โ spot | -$632 | -$672 | -$735 | -$915 |
| $322 (+2%) | -$803 | -$838 | -$882 | -$915 |
| $332 (+5%) | -$896 | -$908 | -$914 | -$915 |
| $347 (+10%) | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 |
| $363 (+15%) | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 |
| $379 (+20%) | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 | -$915 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.