Target Price Playground
GOOG
$315.72
๐ข
GOOG IV: 7.6% โ LOW
(-84.3% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $315.72 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.27 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $340 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,355 (10.9%) on $30,645 risked, vs +$2,428 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $31,572. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $340 by Jun 19
+$3,355
+10.9% on $30,645 risked
Max Profit
+$3,355
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,645
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$306.45
-2.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
2%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.8 / 13.21 / -49.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$5,387 | -$5,387 | -$5,387 | -$5,387 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$3,809 | -$3,809 | -$3,809 | -$3,809 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$2,230 | -$2,230 | -$2,230 | -$2,230 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$652 | -$652 | -$652 | -$652 |
| $309 (-2%) | +$294 | +$296 | +$296 | +$296 |
| $316 (0%) โ spot | +$915 | +$925 | +$927 | +$927 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$1,511 | +$1,542 | +$1,557 | +$1,558 |
| $332 (+5%) | +$2,278 | +$2,372 | +$2,461 | +$2,506 |
| $340 (+8%) โ target | +$2,739 | +$2,874 | +$3,032 | +$3,355 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$2,949 | +$3,079 | +$3,220 | +$3,355 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$3,069 | +$3,165 | +$3,259 | +$3,355 |
| $379 (+20%) | +$3,075 | +$3,167 | +$3,259 | +$3,355 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.