Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $335 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$750 (2.7%) on $-750 credit (max loss $28,250), vs +$1,776 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $31,724. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | -$2,632 | -$2,711 | -$2,789 | -$2,871 |
| $270 (-15%) | -$1,060 | -$1,127 | -$1,203 | -$1,285 |
| $286 (-10%) | +$230 | +$253 | +$285 | +$302 |
| $301 (-5%) | +$704 | +$726 | +$745 | +$750 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$745 | +$749 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$749 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $324 (+2%) | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $335 (+6%) โ target | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $365 (+15%) | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |
| $381 (+20%) | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 | +$750 |