Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$317.24
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 6.5% โ LOW
(-86.6% vs 30d avg of 48.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $317.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $345 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.55 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $345 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,631 (11.8%) on $30,869 risked, vs +$2,776 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $31,724. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $345 by Jun 19
+$3,631
+11.8% on $30,869 risked
Max Profit
+$3,631
If the stock โฅ $345 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,869
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$308.69
-2.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.76 / 13.9 / -49.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | -$5,490 | -$5,490 | -$5,490 | -$5,490 |
| $270 (-15%) | -$3,904 | -$3,904 | -$3,904 | -$3,904 |
| $286 (-10%) | -$2,317 | -$2,317 | -$2,317 | -$2,317 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$731 | -$731 | -$731 | -$731 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$220 | +$221 | +$221 | +$221 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$848 | +$854 | +$855 | +$855 |
| $324 (+2%) | +$1,460 | +$1,481 | +$1,489 | +$1,489 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$2,285 | +$2,361 | +$2,423 | +$2,441 |
| $345 (+9%) โ target | +$2,989 | +$3,129 | +$3,293 | +$3,631 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$3,124 | +$3,265 | +$3,427 | +$3,631 |
| $365 (+15%) | +$3,329 | +$3,434 | +$3,533 | +$3,631 |
| $381 (+20%) | +$3,347 | +$3,440 | +$3,533 | +$3,631 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.