Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GTLB hits $21 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$162 (9.6%) on $-162 credit (max loss $1,688), vs +$83 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $2,018. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GTLB is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GTLB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$183 | -$152 | -$113 | -$74 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$127 | -$91 | -$45 | +$27 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$78 | -$39 | +$12 | +$128 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$36 | +$4 | +$56 | +$162 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$13 | +$26 | +$77 | +$162 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$39 | +$89 | +$162 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$12 | +$51 | +$100 | +$162 |
| $21 (+4%) โ target | +$25 | +$63 | +$110 | +$162 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$55 | +$90 | +$130 | +$162 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$75 | +$108 | +$142 | +$162 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$92 | +$121 | +$150 | +$162 |