Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GWRE hits $125 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$792 (7.8%) on $-792 credit (max loss $10,208), vs +$705 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $11,795. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GWRE is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GWRE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 (-20%) | -$1,162 | -$1,028 | -$875 | -$772 |
| $100 (-15%) | -$796 | -$633 | -$428 | -$182 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$482 | -$300 | -$59 | +$408 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$218 | -$27 | +$225 | +$792 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$82 | +$109 | +$358 | +$792 |
| $118 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$189 | +$433 | +$792 |
| $120 (+2%) | +$76 | +$262 | +$496 | +$792 |
| $125 (+6%) โ target | +$208 | +$384 | +$595 | +$792 |
| $130 (+10%) | +$320 | +$483 | +$665 | +$792 |
| $136 (+15%) | +$432 | +$576 | +$721 | +$792 |
| $142 (+20%) | +$519 | +$643 | +$754 | +$792 |