Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 9.3% โ LOW
(-80.0% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.52 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $365 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.1 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $380 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,758 (141.5%) on $1,242 risked, vs +$4,266 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 11.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $380 by Jun 19
+$1,758
+141.5% on $1,242 risked
Max Profit
+$1,758
If the stock โฅ $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,242
Net debit
Break-even
$347.42
+2.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
28.85 / -3.55 / 3.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$1,242 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 |
| $287 (-15%) | -$1,242 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 |
| $304 (-10%) | -$1,239 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 | -$1,242 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$1,140 | -$1,197 | -$1,235 | -$1,242 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$839 | -$960 | -$1,098 | -$1,242 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$470 | -$600 | -$761 | -$1,008 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$5 | -$91 | -$211 | -$333 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$752 | +$746 | +$737 | +$679 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$1,535 | +$1,593 | +$1,671 | +$1,758 |
| $380 (+13%) โ target | +$1,675 | +$1,711 | +$1,743 | +$1,758 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$1,718 | +$1,736 | +$1,749 | +$1,758 |
| $405 (+20%) | +$1,733 | +$1,741 | +$1,750 | +$1,758 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.