Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 9.3% โ LOW
(-80.0% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $310 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $295 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,615 (182.5%) on $885 risked, vs $-4,234 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $295 by Jun 19
+$1,615
+182.5% on $885 risked
Max Profit
+$1,615
If the stock โค $310 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$885
Net debit
Break-even
$326.15
-3.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.8 / -1.74 / 9.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$1,594 | +$1,601 | +$1,608 | +$1,615 |
| $287 (-15%) | +$1,583 | +$1,599 | +$1,608 | +$1,615 |
| $295 (-13%) โ target | +$1,523 | +$1,573 | +$1,605 | +$1,615 |
| $304 (-10%) | +$1,317 | +$1,423 | +$1,534 | +$1,615 |
| $320 (-5%) | +$321 | +$384 | +$467 | +$568 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$325 | -$350 | -$395 | -$444 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$612 | -$660 | -$733 | -$885 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$774 | -$812 | -$857 | -$885 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$865 | -$877 | -$884 | -$885 |
| $371 (+10%) | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 |
| $388 (+15%) | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 |
| $405 (+20%) | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 | -$885 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.