Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $355 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$765 (2.5%) on $-765 credit (max loss $30,235), vs +$1,766 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$2,993 | -$3,076 | -$3,160 | -$3,248 |
| $287 (-15%) | -$1,318 | -$1,392 | -$1,473 | -$1,561 |
| $304 (-10%) | +$101 | +$119 | +$140 | +$126 |
| $320 (-5%) | +$691 | +$721 | +$752 | +$765 |
| $331 (-2%) | +$755 | +$762 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$763 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $355 (+5%) โ target | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $405 (+20%) | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 | +$765 |