Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 7.2% โ LOW
(-84.7% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $337.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $365 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.1 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $365 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,376 (10.2%) on $33,124 risked, vs +$2,766 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $365 by Jun 19
+$3,376
+10.2% on $33,124 risked
Max Profit
+$3,376
If the stock โฅ $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,124
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$331.24
-1.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
2%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.59 / 10.35 / -53.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$6,137 | -$6,137 | -$6,137 | -$6,137 |
| $287 (-15%) | -$4,450 | -$4,450 | -$4,450 | -$4,450 |
| $304 (-10%) | -$2,763 | -$2,763 | -$2,763 | -$2,763 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$1,077 | -$1,077 | -$1,077 | -$1,077 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$68 | -$65 | -$65 | -$65 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$597 | +$608 | +$610 | +$610 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$1,236 | +$1,269 | +$1,284 | +$1,285 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$2,074 | +$2,171 | +$2,260 | +$2,297 |
| $365 (+8%) โ target | +$2,682 | +$2,832 | +$3,010 | +$3,376 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$2,877 | +$3,026 | +$3,194 | +$3,376 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$3,060 | +$3,169 | +$3,272 | +$3,376 |
| $405 (+20%) | +$3,075 | +$3,174 | +$3,273 | +$3,376 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.