Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 9.3% โ LOW
(-80.0% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $295 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,350 (142.4%) on $1,650 risked, vs $-4,234 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 11.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $295 by Jun 19
+$2,350
+142.4% on $1,650 risked
Max Profit
+$31,850
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,650
Premium paid
Break-even
$318.50
-5.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.14 / -12.43 / 56.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$4,587 | +$4,678 | +$4,768 | +$4,863 |
| $287 (-15%) | +$2,900 | +$2,991 | +$3,081 | +$3,176 |
| $295 (-13%) โ target | +$2,075 | +$2,165 | +$2,255 | +$2,350 |
| $304 (-10%) | +$1,216 | +$1,304 | +$1,394 | +$1,489 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$371 | -$337 | -$285 | -$197 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$1,079 | -$1,112 | -$1,160 | -$1,209 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$1,375 | -$1,424 | -$1,498 | -$1,650 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$1,538 | -$1,577 | -$1,622 | -$1,650 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$1,630 | -$1,642 | -$1,649 | -$1,650 |
| $371 (+10%) | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 |
| $388 (+15%) | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 |
| $405 (+20%) | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 | -$1,650 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.