Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 9.3% โ LOW
(-80.0% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $337.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $320 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.85 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $370 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,181 (6.3%) on $34,819 risked, vs +$3,266 (9.7%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $370 by Jun 19
+$2,181
+6.3% on $34,819 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,819
Put floors you at $320
Break-even
$348.19
+3.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.1 / -11.24 / 47.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$3,082 | -$2,996 | -$2,910 | -$2,819 |
| $287 (-15%) | -$3,081 | -$2,996 | -$2,910 | -$2,819 |
| $304 (-10%) | -$3,020 | -$2,973 | -$2,907 | -$2,819 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$2,445 | -$2,492 | -$2,562 | -$2,772 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$1,681 | -$1,713 | -$1,746 | -$1,760 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$1,061 | -$1,075 | -$1,084 | -$1,085 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$404 | -$409 | -$410 | -$410 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$602 | +$602 | +$602 | +$602 |
| $370 (+10%) โ target | +$2,181 | +$2,181 | +$2,181 | +$2,181 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$3,975 | +$3,975 | +$3,975 | +$3,975 |
| $405 (+20%) | +$5,662 | +$5,662 | +$5,662 | +$5,662 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.