Target Price Playground
HD
$337.34
๐ข
HD IV: 9.3% โ LOW
(-80.0% vs 30d avg of 46.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.52 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HD hits $390 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,998 (57.1%) on $3,502 risked, vs +$5,266 (15.6%) for 100 shares on $33,734. Options give 3.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HD is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HD hits $390 by Jun 19
+$1,998
+57.1% on $3,502 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,502
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$370.02
+9.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.12 / -26.33 / 112.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$2,735 | +$2,826 | +$2,916 | +$3,011 |
| $287 (-15%) | +$1,048 | +$1,139 | +$1,229 | +$1,324 |
| $304 (-10%) | -$633 | -$548 | -$458 | -$363 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$2,121 | -$2,144 | -$2,130 | -$2,049 |
| $331 (-2%) | -$2,526 | -$2,682 | -$2,868 | -$3,061 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$2,442 | -$2,631 | -$2,869 | -$3,268 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$2,094 | -$2,262 | -$2,443 | -$2,593 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$1,265 | -$1,380 | -$1,485 | -$1,581 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$381 | +$290 | +$200 | +$105 |
| $390 (+16%) โ target | +$2,274 | +$2,183 | +$2,093 | +$1,998 |
| $405 (+20%) | +$3,755 | +$3,664 | +$3,574 | +$3,479 |
Uses HD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.