Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HPE hits $26 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$134 (6.2%) on $-134 credit (max loss $2,166), vs +$111 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $2,489. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HPE is at $26. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HPE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 (-20%) | -$440 | -$375 | -$291 | -$175 |
| $21 (-15%) | -$379 | -$309 | -$216 | -$50 |
| $22 (-10%) | -$325 | -$251 | -$153 | +$74 |
| $24 (-5%) | -$275 | -$199 | -$98 | +$134 |
| $24 (-2%) | -$249 | -$171 | -$70 | +$134 |
| $25 (0%) โ spot | -$231 | -$154 | -$52 | +$134 |
| $25 (+2%) | -$215 | -$137 | -$36 | +$134 |
| $26 (+4%) โ target | -$196 | -$118 | -$18 | +$134 |
| $27 (+10%) | -$156 | -$80 | +$16 | +$134 |
| $29 (+15%) | -$125 | -$50 | +$41 | +$134 |
| $30 (+20%) | -$97 | -$24 | +$61 | +$134 |