Target Price Playground
HPE
$24.89
๐ก
HPE IV: 81.4% โ NORMAL
(+0.2% vs 30d avg of 81.2%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $27 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $24.89 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.25 ยท ฮ 0.68
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HPE hits $27 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$336 (14.2%) on $2,364 risked, vs +$211 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $2,489. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HPE is at $27. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HPE hits $27 by Jun 19
+$336
+14.2% on $2,364 risked
Max Profit
+$336
If the stock โฅ $27 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,364
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$23.64
-5.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
32.35 / 7.24 / -3.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HPE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 (-20%) | -$560 | -$495 | -$423 | -$373 |
| $21 (-15%) | -$483 | -$410 | -$325 | -$248 |
| $22 (-10%) | -$412 | -$332 | -$235 | -$124 |
| $24 (-5%) | -$346 | -$261 | -$153 | +$1 |
| $24 (-2%) | -$310 | -$222 | -$109 | +$75 |
| $25 (0%) โ spot | -$287 | -$196 | -$80 | +$125 |
| $25 (+2%) | -$264 | -$172 | -$53 | +$175 |
| $26 (+5%) | -$232 | -$138 | -$16 | +$249 |
| $27 (+8%) โ target | -$196 | -$101 | +$24 | +$336 |
| $27 (+10%) | -$181 | -$85 | +$40 | +$336 |
| $29 (+15%) | -$136 | -$38 | +$89 | +$336 |
| $30 (+20%) | -$94 | +$5 | +$130 | +$336 |
Uses HPE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.