Target Price Playground
HPE
$24.89
๐ก
HPE IV: 81.4% โ NORMAL
(+0.2% vs 30d avg of 81.2%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $27 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $24.89 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $24 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.92 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HPE hits $27 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-181 (-6.3%) on $2,881 risked, vs +$211 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $2,489. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HPE is at $27. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HPE hits $27 by Jun 19
$-181
-6.3% on $2,881 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$531
Put floors you at $24
Break-even
$28.81
+15.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.78 / -3.23 / 3.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HPE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 (-20%) | -$280 | -$346 | -$428 | -$531 |
| $21 (-15%) | -$219 | -$289 | -$381 | -$531 |
| $22 (-10%) | -$151 | -$226 | -$324 | -$531 |
| $24 (-5%) | -$78 | -$155 | -$258 | -$516 |
| $24 (-2%) | -$32 | -$110 | -$214 | -$442 |
| $25 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$79 | -$183 | -$392 |
| $25 (+2%) | +$33 | -$46 | -$150 | -$342 |
| $26 (+5%) | +$83 | +$3 | -$100 | -$268 |
| $27 (+8%) โ target | +$143 | +$64 | -$37 | -$181 |
| $27 (+10%) | +$170 | +$91 | -$9 | -$143 |
| $29 (+15%) | +$261 | +$183 | +$88 | -$19 |
| $30 (+20%) | +$356 | +$280 | +$190 | +$106 |
Uses HPE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.