Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HUBS hits $200 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,740 (11.0%) on $-1,740 credit (max loss $15,760), vs +$774 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $19,226. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HUBS is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HUBS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $154 (-20%) | -$1,345 | -$1,065 | -$723 | -$379 |
| $163 (-15%) | -$806 | -$487 | -$73 | +$582 |
| $173 (-10%) | -$343 | +$0 | +$454 | +$1,543 |
| $183 (-5%) | +$51 | +$401 | +$861 | +$1,740 |
| $188 (-2%) | +$255 | +$603 | +$1,052 | +$1,740 |
| $192 (0%) โ spot | +$380 | +$724 | +$1,159 | +$1,740 |
| $196 (+2%) | +$495 | +$833 | +$1,253 | +$1,740 |
| $200 (+4%) โ target | +$603 | +$933 | +$1,334 | +$1,740 |
| $211 (+10%) | +$875 | +$1,175 | +$1,510 | +$1,740 |
| $221 (+15%) | +$1,055 | +$1,326 | +$1,601 | +$1,740 |
| $231 (+20%) | +$1,201 | +$1,439 | +$1,658 | +$1,740 |