Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.52 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $250 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $260 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,113 (125.5%) on $887 risked, vs +$2,924 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 9.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $260 by Jun 19
+$1,113
+125.5% on $887 risked
Max Profit
+$1,113
If the stock โฅ $250 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$887
Net debit
Break-even
$238.87
+3.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
21.99 / 3.13 / 2.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | -$887 | -$887 | -$887 | -$887 |
| $196 (-15%) | -$887 | -$887 | -$887 | -$887 |
| $208 (-10%) | -$880 | -$886 | -$887 | -$887 |
| $219 (-5%) | -$783 | -$835 | -$876 | -$887 |
| $226 (-2%) | -$577 | -$666 | -$774 | -$887 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | -$353 | -$444 | -$568 | -$811 |
| $235 (+2%) | -$77 | -$141 | -$234 | -$349 |
| $242 (+5%) | +$361 | +$362 | +$366 | +$343 |
| $254 (+10%) | +$883 | +$936 | +$1,010 | +$1,113 |
| $260 (+13%) โ target | +$1,011 | +$1,050 | +$1,091 | +$1,113 |
| $265 (+15%) | +$1,063 | +$1,087 | +$1,105 | +$1,113 |
| $277 (+20%) | +$1,094 | +$1,101 | +$1,107 | +$1,113 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.