Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.3 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $205 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,235 (161.4%) on $765 risked, vs $-2,576 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 14.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $205 by Jun 19
+$1,235
+161.4% on $765 risked
Max Profit
+$1,235
If the stock โค $210 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$765
Net debit
Break-even
$222.35
-3.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.06 / 3.03 / 6.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | +$1,218 | +$1,224 | +$1,229 | +$1,235 |
| $196 (-15%) | +$1,180 | +$1,210 | +$1,228 | +$1,235 |
| $205 (-11%) โ target | +$990 | +$1,073 | +$1,164 | +$1,235 |
| $208 (-10%) | +$880 | +$972 | +$1,085 | +$1,235 |
| $219 (-5%) | +$167 | +$202 | +$249 | +$313 |
| $226 (-2%) | -$263 | -$289 | -$331 | -$379 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | -$475 | -$519 | -$586 | -$765 |
| $235 (+2%) | -$615 | -$657 | -$712 | -$765 |
| $242 (+5%) | -$720 | -$743 | -$761 | -$765 |
| $254 (+10%) | -$762 | -$764 | -$765 | -$765 |
| $265 (+15%) | -$765 | -$765 | -$765 | -$765 |
| $277 (+20%) | -$765 | -$765 | -$765 | -$765 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.