Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.05 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $220 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$550 (92.5%) on $595 risked, vs $-1,076 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 19.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $220 by Jun 19
+$550
+92.5% on $595 risked
Max Profit
+$523
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$595
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$228.95
-0.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.15 / 6.31 / 8.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | +$318 | +$321 | +$323 | +$326 |
| $196 (-15%) | +$316 | +$320 | +$323 | +$326 |
| $208 (-10%) | +$274 | +$302 | +$321 | +$326 |
| $220 (-5%) โ target | +$26 | +$70 | +$137 | +$350 |
| $226 (-2%) | -$170 | -$156 | -$141 | -$149 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | -$309 | -$318 | -$340 | -$398 |
| $235 (+2%) | -$421 | -$442 | -$475 | -$528 |
| $242 (+5%) | -$526 | -$545 | -$567 | -$587 |
| $254 (+10%) | -$586 | -$591 | -$594 | -$595 |
| $265 (+15%) | -$594 | -$595 | -$595 | -$595 |
| $277 (+20%) | -$595 | -$595 | -$595 | -$595 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.