Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.3 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $205 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$970 (63.4%) on $1,530 risked, vs $-2,576 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 5.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $205 by Jun 19
+$970
+63.4% on $1,530 risked
Max Profit
+$21,470
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,530
Premium paid
Break-even
$214.70
-6.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.62 / -7.27 / 38.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | +$2,820 | +$2,882 | +$2,944 | +$3,009 |
| $196 (-15%) | +$1,666 | +$1,728 | +$1,790 | +$1,855 |
| $205 (-11%) โ target | +$784 | +$843 | +$905 | +$970 |
| $208 (-10%) | +$520 | +$576 | +$637 | +$702 |
| $219 (-5%) | -$536 | -$528 | -$506 | -$452 |
| $226 (-2%) | -$1,015 | -$1,049 | -$1,096 | -$1,144 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | -$1,236 | -$1,283 | -$1,351 | -$1,530 |
| $235 (+2%) | -$1,379 | -$1,422 | -$1,477 | -$1,530 |
| $242 (+5%) | -$1,485 | -$1,508 | -$1,526 | -$1,530 |
| $254 (+10%) | -$1,527 | -$1,529 | -$1,530 | -$1,530 |
| $265 (+15%) | -$1,530 | -$1,530 | -$1,530 | -$1,530 |
| $277 (+20%) | -$1,530 | -$1,530 | -$1,530 | -$1,530 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.