Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $230.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $255 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,314 (5.4%) on $24,186 risked, vs +$2,424 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $255 by Jun 19
+$1,314
+5.4% on $24,186 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,186
Put floors you at $220
Break-even
$241.86
+4.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
2%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.0 / -11.29 / 37.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | -$2,367 | -$2,308 | -$2,248 | -$2,186 |
| $196 (-15%) | -$2,364 | -$2,307 | -$2,248 | -$2,186 |
| $208 (-10%) | -$2,300 | -$2,279 | -$2,244 | -$2,186 |
| $219 (-5%) | -$1,920 | -$1,962 | -$2,025 | -$2,186 |
| $226 (-2%) | -$1,450 | -$1,488 | -$1,535 | -$1,572 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | -$1,058 | -$1,082 | -$1,104 | -$1,110 |
| $235 (+2%) | -$628 | -$640 | -$647 | -$648 |
| $242 (+5%) | +$48 | +$45 | +$44 | +$44 |
| $255 (+11%) โ target | +$1,314 | +$1,314 | +$1,314 | +$1,314 |
| $265 (+15%) | +$2,351 | +$2,351 | +$2,351 | +$2,351 |
| $277 (+20%) | +$3,505 | +$3,505 | +$3,505 | +$3,505 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.