Target Price Playground
IBM
$230.76
๐ข
IBM IV: 6.3% โ LOW
(-89.1% vs 30d avg of 57.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $230.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $250 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IBM hits $250 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,689 (12.1%) on $22,311 risked, vs +$1,924 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $23,076. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IBM is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IBM hits $250 by Jun 19
+$2,689
+12.1% on $22,311 risked
Max Profit
+$2,689
If the stock โฅ $250 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,311
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$223.11
-3.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
6%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.71 / 10.26 / -36.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IBM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 (-20%) | -$3,850 | -$3,850 | -$3,850 | -$3,850 |
| $196 (-15%) | -$2,696 | -$2,696 | -$2,696 | -$2,696 |
| $208 (-10%) | -$1,543 | -$1,543 | -$1,543 | -$1,543 |
| $219 (-5%) | -$390 | -$389 | -$389 | -$389 |
| $226 (-2%) | +$295 | +$302 | +$303 | +$303 |
| $231 (0%) โ spot | +$739 | +$758 | +$765 | +$765 |
| $235 (+2%) | +$1,160 | +$1,199 | +$1,224 | +$1,227 |
| $242 (+5%) | +$1,704 | +$1,788 | +$1,872 | +$1,919 |
| $250 (+8%) โ target | +$2,130 | +$2,248 | +$2,389 | +$2,689 |
| $254 (+10%) | +$2,266 | +$2,384 | +$2,520 | +$2,689 |
| $265 (+15%) | +$2,450 | +$2,536 | +$2,616 | +$2,689 |
| $277 (+20%) | +$2,481 | +$2,550 | +$2,618 | +$2,689 |
Uses IBM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.