Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IDCC hits $370 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,640 (5.3%) on $-1,640 credit (max loss $30,860), vs +$1,773 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $35,227. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IDCC is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IDCC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $282 (-20%) | -$3,463 | -$3,166 | -$2,844 | -$2,678 |
| $299 (-15%) | -$2,327 | -$1,941 | -$1,460 | -$917 |
| $317 (-10%) | -$1,377 | -$935 | -$351 | +$844 |
| $335 (-5%) | -$606 | -$148 | +$457 | +$1,640 |
| $345 (-2%) | -$224 | +$227 | +$805 | +$1,640 |
| $352 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$440 | +$989 | +$1,640 |
| $359 (+2%) | +$202 | +$626 | +$1,138 | +$1,640 |
| $370 (+5%) โ target | +$467 | +$861 | +$1,309 | +$1,640 |
| $388 (+10%) | +$811 | +$1,146 | +$1,481 | +$1,640 |
| $405 (+15%) | +$1,064 | +$1,336 | +$1,569 | +$1,640 |
| $423 (+20%) | +$1,245 | +$1,457 | +$1,610 | +$1,640 |